A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
