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For a brief period, Trump gave the impression to embrace a resolute stance concerning Ukraine. Following issuing warnings of "serious repercussions" last August should Russia's president carried on hindering peace talks, the former president ultimately enacted substantial sanctions on the Russian biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision significantly impacted the Russian leader's capability to finance his military invasion in the region.

However, with his newly presented 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly drafted by American and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, he has apparently returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Military Action

This initiative would essentially benefit the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while placing the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Although bold statements that "The nation's independence will be affirmed", much of the plan actually compromise that same independence. Seen as a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate background, the former president seems to consider the war as a mere land disagreement, like ceding Russia a portion of Ukraine's land will appease the president. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not merely about controlling a charred region of economically weakened territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious desire to destroy it so it no longer acts as an attractive model for the Russian citizens of the accountable leadership that his deepening autocracy withholds them.

Territorial Concessions

Although freezing in position the presently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would require Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk province. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a ten years of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukraine's military defenses critically compromised.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that are a critical barrier to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, giving Putin a open route to Kyiv should he subsequently decide to resume the war.

Armed Forces Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would make future hostilities simpler for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their current large number troops to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Significantly, the plan places no similar constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to characterize the nation's chosen by the people administration as extremists, the proposal states: "All extremist doctrine and activities must be condemned and prohibited." As if to highlight this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, the proposal places no condition that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the initiative makes Russia commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "incorporate in regulation its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". However given that Putin has breached equivalent agreements in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a ceasefire and a restoration of occupied areas in the region to the government – for what reason should we have confidence in Russia this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so determined on external defense commitments. Although the plan warns of a "decisive joint armed reaction" should Russia resume its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive dependable defense commitments", the details vary from fuzzy to alarming. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude alliance nations from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from replenishing his weakened military, re-equipping, and attacking again.

International Reaction

A separate parallel deal apparently would offer the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. But different from a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the dedication of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to react through arms to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not