Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
