‘The Situation is Dire’: Hostilities on Iran Constricts India's Kitchen Fuel Supplies.
The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's homes.
As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, stocks of cooking gas are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, close earlier and in some cases close completely.
Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the south. People are adopting coal and wood and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."
Localized Effects
In a financial hub, accounts say up to a 20% of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability tighten. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their fuel reserves have shrunk with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."
Retailers note a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.
Official Position
Yet, the government states there is adequate supply.
India has more than 300 million household consumers and officials say stocks are being redirected to households as geopolitical strain from the war in the Gulf impact energy markets.
Roughly a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those imports pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now effectively closed by the hostilities.
The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".
"Some panic booking and hoarding has been caused by false reports. The standard supply timeline for domestic LPG remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.
According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be exaggerated.
India imports almost all of its petroleum. Around half of its oil purchases - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.
Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.
Based on vessel tracking and expert analysis, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The real vulnerability is LPG, experts note.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.
Refineries can tweak operations to produce a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only lift domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through diversification. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just tight supply but uneven distribution - and the usual problem of stockpiling.
An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.
"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."
For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.
