🔗 Share this article

Amid the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and abduct its leader – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. The international community may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.